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INNOVATIONS: GLOBAL BUSINESS ADVISOR

Make the Business Case for Global Expansion

What's the return on investment for your global initiatives? Here's how to measure ROI, without forgetting the bigger issues of expanding your e-business internationally, including customer goodwill.

By Don DePalma

As companies calculate the financial viability of their domestic online efforts, it's important to re-examine plans for Germany, Japan, Brazil, and other rapidly growing Net economies. Some companies will see the failures of heavily-funded international e-commerce efforts, such as boxman.com and dressmart.com, and will put the brakes on their global projects.

Return on global investment

Caution: Heed the lessons from others, but that doesn't mean you should take an all-or-nothing approach to global e-business initiatives. Apply the same business metrics to international expansion that you would to domestic markets. Calculate global ROI to determine whether an investment beyond domestic markets will:

  • Increase revenue and share. U.S. companies see the enormous growth in Web usage outside the United States as an opportunity to drive up revenue. Conversely, firms like BMW in Germany and Embraer in Brazil target the United States to sell their high-value manufactured goods. Companies also look to sell into their own large ethnic populations as ways to increase domestic marketshare.
  • Lower the cost of doing business. The Web has already demonstrated value in taking costs out of business practices and transactions. GE saves US$500 million annually with Web-based procurement systems. As companies extend their Web infrastructure to support international manufacturing and supply chains, they'll discover that inefficiencies multiply with each market they add.
  • Improve customer service. The Web lets customers serve themselves for sales and basic post-sales needs 24x7x365. Besides benefiting customers, companies save money from self-service. Forrester Research notes that customer service costs plummet when buyers can access information in their own language. Jupiter quantified the savings for the U.S. market, estimating that the average cost to an American bank for executing a phone transaction is more than US$.50, but less than US$.05 if conducted online. Apply that to hundreds of thousands or millions of transactions, and this tenfold savings is substantial.
  • Enhance a brand. Much of the stock market value of companies like Coca-Cola and Nestlé derives from their brands, rather than from the factories they own. With such enormous equity tied up in brands, companies use the Web to increase awareness of brands and the products associated with them into new worldwide markets. Global branding is much trickier to measure than the other three categories, but it's an essential driver for many corporations as they look beyond their domestic markets.

How to calculate global ROI

If you're selling online internationally, you should be able to do some back-of-envelope calculations on your return on investment.

Example: Consider the case of a typical U.S. Web site selling consumer goods or supplies for manufacturing, repair, or operations (MRO) to business buyers. The site may attract 15 percent of its traffic from outside the U.S. market, and 5 percent of those visitors actually succeed in buying something. The company invested nothing to draw global traffic and did little more than contract with UPS or FedEx to handle international deliveries. The ROI on this miniscule international investment is enormous.

But let's dig a little deeper. A more detailed analysis might show that half of the international visitors tried to purchase something, but most abandoned their transactions midway because of language problems, currency or shipping difficulties, or inadequate terms and conditions.

If we could interview the failed purchasers, we might also find that the site's overtly American business practices will cause them to go to a competitor with local language support for their next purchase.

Rather than looking like an unmitigated success at increasing revenue, this more complete analysis shows that the site left a lot of money on the table and possibly a bitter memory in the minds of the failed purchasers.

Smart Move: To increase the percentage of browsers who become buyers, this American site might choose to add more product information in the languages of its key international markets, support transactions in local currency, and begin personalizing interactions for those visitors. Given the cost to get to that next level of international support, executives will develop an ROI analysis anticipating the yield on their investment.

Creating the business case for such international support requires three steps:
  1. Identify the opportunity.
  2. Figure out what it costs to enter and support each market.
  3. Develop the metrics to show a yield from entering a market.

The final task: Do the math and present a credible case for a profitable ROI in your target markets.

Step one: Identify the opportunity

The first step is to establish the size and nature of the opportunity. You already have market intelligence at hand -- the actual international traffic to your domestic site. By analyzing your Web logs with tools from such vendors as WebTrends or NetGenesis, you can gain some insight into visitor patterns and traffic origins.

What to Do:
  1. Study the data. You'll find details such as which sites visitors come from and where they leave your site, which transactions they abandoned and where, and other "breadcrumbs" that a random visitor or failed purchaser leaves behind.
  2. Find deeper patterns. Systematically analyze the traffic logs to zero in on opportunities in geographic regions and individual countries. Where possible, uncover demographic profiles, such as middle-aged golfers or teenage music lovers, within a national consumer market. On the business side, a manufacturer might find demand at public utilities that require power generators or flow control devices for infrastructure development.
  3. Cross-tab data from other channels. Complement Web measurements with information from any brick-and-mortar data you have. For example, Bertelsmann uses its in-country book clubs to quantify new market potential for its online bookseller BOL. Similarly, United Airlines first targeted countries on its most heavily trafficked routes for localized sites.

Also check the calendar for whether the opportunities that you uncover are short-term (a few months), medium-term (next 12 to 24 months), or long-term (more than two years out). Many U.S. planners -- accustomed to stock market demands for short-term returns on technology and marketing investments -- are unlikely to invest heavily in markets that won't pay off for years.

Caution: You must weigh the consequences of delaying the entry into new markets. As you factor in the payback-time variable against late market entry, consider the strength of untapped markets and competitive threats.

What to Look For:
  • Anticipated sales in demographically correct markets. As it expanded beyond its U.S. base, Travelocity reviewed demographic profiles of multiple countries, settling on Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany as places with a large pool of avid travelers.
  • Expected competitive pressures. A competitive intelligence unit can provide insight into opportunities uncovered by your rivals. For example, Amazon responded to the Bertelsmann and Barnes & Noble partnership with its own German site. Eastman Chemical, a leading U.S.-based chemical company, decided it must serve its international customers with targeted national sites to compete with European competitors like BASF and Celanese.

Step two: Figure out the cost

Once you determine where the opportunity is, you must figure out what it will cost to successfully enter and maintain a strong presence in a given market.

Reality Check: An effective Web presence that consistently draws high-value traffic costs big bucks. Gartner estimates that a basic interactive site costs a minimum of US$300,000, while more ambitious efforts can run into the tens of millions of dollars, plus an annual commitment to management and enhancements.

Pitfalls to Avoid:
  1. Duplicating investment in technology, process, and best practice for each site you build
  2. Creating a good international site only to let it stagnate over time (figure 1)


Figure 1: When calculating ROI for entering a new market, avoid the common pitfall of letting the new sites stagnate. Budget for continuing updates, maintenance, and inter-site synchronization of corporate sites worldwide.

While good design and development practices leverage your investment in technology infrastructure, you still have to pay to tailor a site to other markets. Language, currency, and personalization work top the list. The depth of country support increases or decreases the tab.

For each market, determine:
  1. Is local language support necessary? Is it sufficient just to use FedEx to ship orders to a particular country, or will local language support increase your chances of selling more products or services?

    While customers in northern Europe may be fluent in English, analyst firms such as IDC and Forrester claim that people are three to four times more likely to buy if addressed in their own language.

    Do the math. Our hypothetical site had 15 percent non-U.S. visitation, and succeeded in selling to 5 percent of those visitors. That means that for every 100 visitors, one was a foreigner who bought something. However, local language support could improve customer service and quadruple non-U.S. transactions, but it could also mean translating the content into several different languages, which would be very expensive. For high-volume transaction sites like Bertelsmann and Travelocity, or for very high-value equipment sites such as GE Power, that might make sense.

    Smart Move: In all cases, focus energy and resources on the countries with the best demographics for your product offerings.
  2. Is business localization required? If you choose to support the local language, you set an expectation that you've adapted the site to a country's cultural, wireless, and business ecosystem. For some countries, you won't have a choice if you want to do business there. Whether it's consumer demand or regulation driving the issue, deeper support of an e-business costs considerably more as you adapt the internal systems that support a successful online marketing and selling effort, including sales, inventory, operations, and fulfillment.

Don't Forget: Besides the initial infrastructure adaptation and build-out, you have to keep your international sites synchronized around function and corporate message.

Step three: Develop metrics that are close to the money

For most companies, the metrics most likely to gain shareholder attention are cost savings, revenue generation, and customer service. Work with a small group to establish what makes sense for your company. Sales and marketing vice presidents are interested in top-line revenue growth from previously untapped markets. The director of customer service usually wants to offer improved service at a lower cost to new constituencies. The CIO wants to ensure that the resulting efforts live up to their goals of scalability, availability, and reliability -- all factors that translate into an always-on customer site. The executives at a dot-com are interested in a path to profitability as they grow the business.

Top Tip: If you don't have a list of necessary metrics, consider engaging a consultant or large systems integrator. Due to their accounting practice pedigrees, Big 5 firms have expertise in developing ROI models.

Once you have the metrics, quantify expected results and the tools to measure them.

What to Look For:
  • Measure the reduced cost of doing business. GE and Oracle are examples of companies that openly discuss how they've sliced cost and time inefficiencies out of their supply chains through the use of Internet technologies. These savings flow through to their bottom lines, and allow the companies to compete with low-cost producers.Companies also measure the lower cost of delivering an international experience by showing lower head count. To calculate the cost of producing and managing content suited to their needs, planners can turn to software vendor ROI models that demonstrate the bottom-line value of their solutions. For example, Comdisco's IT Cap suite analyzes ROI around hardware acquisition and IT cost-tracking. Ariba built a tool to showcase savings in Web procurement costs using its software. Idiom developed a similar ROI calculator to quantify its savings in site translation and adaptation costs over more traditional workflow approaches.
  • Quantify revenue and share growth. Tools to measure top-line contributions already exist in your arsenal. Use the balance sheet to show quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year growth in revenue. Rely on industry watchdogs like A.C. Nielsen and Jupiter Media Metrix to keep track of marketshare. To analyze the success of increased conversions and bigger-value transactions, use analytical tools from WebTrends or business intelligence tools from vendors such as Cognos or Business Objects. Create measurable metrics such as increase revenue by 30 percent annually or by 22 percent quarter over quarter.
  • Demonstrate improved customer service. Eastman Chemical plans to offer product information in the language of its key markets, letting customers drill down into product offerings for technical data and safe handling details, thus freeing up customer service representatives for higher value-add interactions.

    Using Web measurement tools, you can track metrics such as higher customer return rates, look-to-buy ratios, and time spent at a site. Those factors equate to increased customer satisfaction. You can also contract with measurement firms, such as Gomez or BizRate, to collect visitor feedback and calculate improvements over time. Keynote Systems can report on site performance characteristics to measure how long it takes international customers to access individual pages or download information.

Make the case

In today's less forgiving market, many companies give in to the temptation to wait out the storm before actively supporting international markets. While this wait-and-see attitude may look good on today's balance sheet, it could look short-sighted a year or two from now if you've missed out on new revenue opportunities, overlooked new efficiencies and cost savings, and watched rivals profit from the results of the strong international business cases they made during the Internet's 2001 dry spell.


Can calculating ROI help you refine your global e-business efforts?

Yes!
  • Good business anywhere demands justified and prioritized projects
  • Global return on investment parallels domestic analysis -- savings, revenue, customer service
  • The tools to measure are already in place in most companies

But...
  • You must agree on which metrics show your return on investment
  • As the market deteriorates, globalization projects without measurable ROI will be cancelled

Donald DePalma, Contributing Editor, is the vice president of corporate strategy for Idiom, Inc. He's a frequent speaker on Web globalization and global e-business. Before joining Idiom, Don was a principal analyst at Forrester Research, where he delivered trend-setting reports on globalization, Web content management, digital marketing, data warehousing, and application development. Prior to that, Don was a cofounder of Interbase Software Corporation. He started his software career at Digital Equipment Corporation, where he worked on industry-leading database and 4GL systems. Before that, as a member of academe, Don specialized as a linguist in generative grammar, computational linguistics, and the historical phonology of Slavic languages. He holds graduate degrees from Brown University and the State University of New York, and certificates from Charles University in Prague, Czech Republic, and Moscow State University and the Moscow Institute of Foreign Languages in Moscow, Russia. http://www.idiominc.com, ddepalma@idiominc.com.

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Make the Business Case for Global Expansion

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